Up until today, the FCS appeared to be a two horse race, between North Dakota State and JMU. The Dukes had outscored their previous four opponents 204-17, and their only loss was to undefeated NC State. QB Ben DiNiccui not only looked like a capable replacement for Bryan Schor, he looked like an improvement. And the secondary showed few signs of missing star DB Rashad Robinson.
Although today's loss provides a reality check for Duke fans, there's five big reasons JMU is still a contender for the FCS National Championship.
1. Elon is really, really good
Despite being a 37.5 underdog, Elon came into this match ranked 9th in FCS. Truth be told, few knew what to expect from the Phoenix. They entered the game with a 3-1 record, but all three wins were against far inferior opponents and their one loss was to FBS South Florida. Everyone now knows that Elon's defense, which returned 9 starters from last years steam, is real deal. They held their own at the line of scrimmage and dominated JMU's run game, holding the Dukes to just 2.6 yards per carry. The rest of Elon's games are very winnable, and there's a great chance they'll finish the year at 10-1.
2. Great teams lose
Yeah, that might sound counterintuitive but it's true. Of Nick Saban's 6 national championships, only once has his team finished undefeated. Of North Dakota State's 6 titles, only once have they finished the year undefeated. The key to great teams isn't being perfect, it's how they act during and after adversity.
JMU felt the pressure of this game late in the 4th but never let up, scoring two TD's in five minutes to regain the lead with just 7 minutes left. Great teams don't go down easy, and Elon was forced to play a nearly perfect game. Despite taking an 8 point lead in the fourth, the Phoenix needed a lucky turnover to even have a chance to win.
3. Mike Houston now has tape
It's not easy to get a team through Tuesday and Wednesday film sessions when they're coming off 40 or 50 point wins. The loss exposes weaknesses and gives HC Mike Houston the chance to tweak the team as needed. Besides NC State, Ben DiNucci really hasn't faced a quality defense. Now, both he and Offensive Coordinator Donnie Kirkpatrick can watch the mistakes and make adjustments. All of this will be key in the Dukes' playoff preparations.
4. If JMU had to lose, this was the perfect time
Timing is everything, even in losing. There are two times teams never want to lose a game, they're supposed to win; the beginning part of the year, and the latter part of the year. Middle of the season though? That's perfect. For one, well coached teams always play great the week after a loss. The Dukes travel next week to Villanova, who is 15 points away from being 5-0. It's a very important non-conference game and losses typically produce strong weeks of practice.
Secondly, if JMU falls in the polls, this gives them six weeks to rebound. Of the five games remaining, four opponents are ranked and the other is traditional FCS power, New Hampshire. If JMU wins out, they'll most assuredly still take a top 3 seed in the FCS playoffs.
5. JMU nearly, and probably should have, won
JMU had a four point lead, possession and in Elon territory before Dylan Stapleton fumbled. If Stapleton hangs on, JMU likely gets a first down on the next play, putting the Dukes into field goal range. Obviously, there's no room for "ifs" on the W/L record. However, that play will be watched over and over again, and cutting down the turnovers will become a point of focus for the coaching staff.
No, losing a game is never a good thing and the week will be a bitter one for JMU fans. But the loss gives Mike Houston the script to get through CAA play and into playoffs. They now realize that DiNucci still has room to grow and the offense has to stop the turnovers if they want to return to Frisco, Texas. Lastly, the players understand that they're vulnerable and vulnerable teams take no games for granted. Expect this team to be motivated and playing with a chip on their shoulder from here on. This isn't the time to start doubting JMU, this is the time to believe.
