Head Coach: Bronco Mendenhall
2017 Record: 6-7 (Lost to Navy in the Military Bowl)
Conference: ACC
After winning just two games in 2016, UVA fans expected improvement this past season. Things got off to a quick start as the Cavs got off to 5-1, with their lone loss being a one possession game against Indiana. However, the second half of the season was not nearly as kind to the Hoos'. Their last six games featured only one win, and all five of the losses were by double digits. Despite the late season struggle, they were still eligible for a bowl and received an invite to the Military bowl. The excitement of that invite was short lived though, as UVA got rolled by Navy, 49-7.
Mendenhall made obvious progress last year, but he has to keep building. During the ACC Kickoff, he wasn't shy about the importance of beating Virginia Tech. It's been 15 years since they last bested their in-state rival and playing that game in Blacksburg this year will make it even more difficult to break the streak. Additionally, they'll face Louisville and NC State in inter-divisional conference play, making this year's schedule particularly difficult.
Key Losses from 2017:
LB - Micah Kiser
Early in the year, Kiser proved his worth as a pass-rusher, racking up 5 sacks in just three games. Mendenhall however had Kiser shift to more of a coverage role, where he proved to be equally effective. On eight different occasions, Micah posted 9 or more tackles. His speed and intelligence limited offenses and helped the Cavs defense improve from 34 points allowed per game in 2016, to 29 points allowed last year. His success earned him a 5th round selection by the LA Rams in the NFL draft.
Safety - Quin Blanding
Quin graduated as the school record holder for career tackles. In 2017, he had 137 tackles, 3.5 of which were for a loss, 4 interceptions and a key pick-six against Duke. That performance was good enough to land him first-team All-ACC honors. Despite not getting drafted, he signed with the Redskins as an undrafted free-agent and is fighting for a roster spot.
QB - Kurt Benkert
Benkert transferred from ECU, where he engineered an air-raid offense. That experience certainly helped him during last year, as he broke the UVA record for passing yards with 455, against UConn. Through the first six games, he had thrown for over 1,600 yards, 15 TD's, just 3 interceptions and was completing just over 63% of his passes. His production dipped in the second half of the year though. His completion percentage fell to 53%, and he threw a pick in every game except against Virginia Tech.
Key returnees from 2017:
WR - Olamide Zaccheaus
We know that UVA last beat Virginia Tech in 2003, but did you realize that the last time the Cavs had a receiver with over 1,000 yards, in a season, it was 2001? Zaccheaus nearly broke that streak last year with 895 yards on 85 receptions, making him one of Benkert's favorite targets. He also proved his worth in the return game with 145 yards on just 7 returns. Mendenhall is expected to replace Benkert with Bryce Perkins at Quarterback, and Perkins is expected to engineer a more option style offense. So, the new scheme could impact his ability to break the 1,000 yard streak.
RB - Jordan Ellis
With 836 yards on 215 carries, Jordan's running production doesn't necessarily jump off the charts. But, he was consistent throughout the year, rushing for at least 80 yards in each game where he had 20 or more carries. Given the move to a dual-threat offense, Ellis will be incredibly valuable to the Hoos' success. One of the keys to a run-pass-option (RPO) offense is the check-down option. Often times, that player is a running back. This is where Ellis can provide true value to Mendenhall's new scheme. Last year he had 22 receptions, 137 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Safety - Jaun Thornhill
With Quin Blanding and Micah Kiser graduating, Mendenhall will be desperate for any experience on the defensive side of the ball. As a junior, Thornhill led the defense in pass-breakups with 12, and he added 4 interceptions. His ability to patrol the middle of the field and his ability to disrupt the passing game is obvious. The question though, how will he step into his new role as a leader?
2018 Schedule:
September 1, vs Richmond
September 8, @ Indiana
September 15, vs Ohio
September 22, vs Louisville
September 29, @ NC State
October 13, @ Miami
October 20, @ Duke
October 27, vs UNC
November 2, vs Pitt
November 10, vs Liberty
November 17, @ Georgia Tech
November 23, @ Virginia Tech
Schedule Notes:
UVA last hosted Richmond in 2016, on Bronco Mendenhall's debut, and the Hoos were ousted 37-20. This year's Spiders squad isn't nearly as talented and will also be ushering in a new QB. Outside of UofR and Liberty, this schedule is really difficult. In 2017, their 10 FBS opponents compiled a 70-55 record last season. Inter-divisional play features two formidable opponents, Louisville and NC State. And two of their winnable conference games, Duke and Georgia Tech, are on the road. Vegas is predicting 5 wins for the Cavs, which would prevent them from qualifying for a bowl.
Offensive Outlook:
After averaging 29 points per game through the first six games in 2017, the offense hit a wall and their average dropped ten points, to 19 per game, through the last six games. While the Cavs do lose QB Kurt Benkert, and two talented receivers (Andrew Levrone & Doni Dowling), keep in mind that they ranked 105th in scoring offense last season and have room to improve. Additionally, we love Bryce Perkins and have him ranked the #1 QB in the state. The addition of Bryce Perkins leads to the change to a RPO offense, which Mendenhall is much more comfortable running. Based on this, we believe UVA will see an increase in offensive production and Olamide Zaccheaus is a potential candidate for first team All-ACC.
Defensive Outlook:
In 2017, UVA ranked 79th in scoring defense, allowing 30 points per game. With potent offenses such as Louisville, NC State and Miami on the schedule, this has to be a focus point for HC Bronco Mendenhall. Replacing Kizer, Brown, and Blanding obviously makes things difficult. It should be noted though that they ranked 10th in passing defense last year and return Brenton Nelson, Juan Thornhill and Bryce Hall. That along with Jordan Mack and Chris Peace returning, should keep UVA among the best pass defenses in the country.
Prediction:
Between the new offense, Bryce Perkins, and this defense returning most of their secondary, there's a lot to like with the Hoos'. The problem is that this schedule is brutal. Even one of Bronco's consistent wins, Duke, will be difficult since it's on the heels of back-to-back road games. Outside of Richmond and Liberty, there's not a single guarantee win on their calendar. With that being said, Indiana and Ohio are very winnable games, which could mean a quick 3-0 start. If that start comes to fruition, they just need to take care of business against UNC, Liberty and Pitt to reach a bowl.
Breakdown:
September 1, vs Richmond - Win
September 8, @ Indiana - Loss
September 15, vs Ohio - Win
September 22, vs Louisville - Loss
September 29, @ NC State - Loss
October 13, @ Miami - Loss
October 20, @ Duke - Win
October 27, vs UNC - Win
November 2, vs Pitt - Loss
November 10, vs Liberty - Win
November 17, @ Georgia Tech - Loss
November 23, @ Virginia Tech - Loss
Record: 5-7
